This is probably very elementary for many of you, but I thought I'd share some of my thoughts about betting the NBA PLAYOFFS...
HOW TO BET THE NBA PLAYOFFS...
written 4/23/05 by THE SHRINK
Starting today, the NBA begins with four playoff games to see who will be crowned the champion. Although the lines for many of these match ups are razor sharp, I believe it is possible to beat the bookmaker. So, let me share with you a few tips on what I look for at this time of year.
1-LIVE UNDERDOGS- I have often wondered who coined this phrase because I really like it. However, how does one decide what constitutes a LIVE DOG from a DEAD one? Personally, I consider a LIVE DOG to be a team not only capable of covering the spread, but one that has a shot at winning the game outright.
2-MATCHUPS- Certain teams match up better against their opponents than others do even though they may not have as good a record. I can't stress to you the importance of recognizing teams who have a superior match up advantage against their opponent. One only needs to look at how certain teams have fared against one another to figure this out.
3-INJURIES- This usually separates the Professionals from the Amateurs. It's often a race between the lines maker and the Wise Guy to get the information first because quite often, the line will move depending on WHO is injured and the severity of the injury. DonBest.com is an excellent source for obtaining this information in a timely manner..
4-LINE MOVES- You don't have to be a Professional to follow line movement. Usually, the best information is the latest information, so I suggest betting as late as possible unless the number you are looking for is about to vanish. For example, Dallas is a 5 1/2 point favorite today against Houston but a couple of 5's remain at the time I am writing this. If you like the favorite, you may want to bet it now because the 5's are likely to disappear quicker than the 5 1/2's. Also, pay close attention when an UNDERDOG gets bet heavy and the line moves in favor of the Dog. Unless proven otherwise, this is a SYNDICATE/PROFESSIONAL bet because the Public tends to bet Favorites and Overs. If you are fortunate enough to catch a slow moving bookmaker or one that inflates point spreads, I'd advocate jumping on board with the Professionals and taking the Underdog. I would also predict that in this case, it would be classified as a LIVE DOG.
5-BE A CONTRARIAN- One overrated scenario is taking the team that loses game 1 and betting them in game 2. Don't be suckered into this blindly. Quite often, when a 5 point favorite wins game 1 by 15 points, the line on game 2 is only 4 because the team that has lost game 1 has their back against the wall. However, this has been factored into the point spread by the line going down! In fact, I prefer to look for situations to play the same team again when there is VALUE due to the line maker overcompensating on this trend. The same holds true whenever a DOG wins outright. The team that was favored to win by 5 points will undoubtedly be favored by 6. Again, I look for reasons to take the DOG again whenever possible, knowing the whole world will be betting the Favorite ...
6-BET FAVORITES EARLY & UNDERDOGS LATE- Since the Public often bets just before game time, you are much more likely to gain a much needed and appreciated half point edge when betting the Underdog close to game time. The opposite holds true if you like the Favorite. Bet them early before the Public inflates that number when they enter the market later on.
7-LOOK FOR STREAKS- Certain teams will rise to the occasion in the playoffs and play better than expected. If you spot a team you see is playing at a level and intensity they haven't show in the Regular Season, keep betting them because the chances are it will take the odds makers longer to adjust to this and figure out a fair line. In other words, be ahead of the bookmakers who make the spread. Quite often, you will see a team cover 5 out of 6 at this time of year. You will be amply rewarded if you figure out WHO before the bookie does.
8-BET ON TEAMS THAT HAVE GREAT DEFENSES- One needs to look no further than last years's NBA FINALS to realize that DEFENSES win basketball games. In fact, DEFENSES are much more consistent than Offenses, so you know that a good defensive team will have its A game, but the same cannot be guaranteed with Offenses. The Detroit Pistons shocked the World last year with their Defense by crushing the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers, whose Offense never showed up.
9-BE WILLING TO PASS- As I mentioned at the onset, the lines on these NBA playoff games are often razor sharp. Don't be afraid to PASS and wait for a better opportunity to strike. Be careful not to bet a game because it's on TV and you are bored. Sometimes the best bet is truly the NO BET. especially when you would have had the Losing side. That, in itself is a WINNER...
10-ALWAYS BUY ONTO BUT NOT OFF OF 2. This may be a tad advanced for some, but many Professionals will BUY a 1 1/2 point DOG to PLUS 2 minus 20 or BUY a 2 1/2 point FAVORITE down to 2 minus 20. I strongly adhere to this but only onto the 2 and not off of the 2. The reason is quite simple. The 2 represents the single most important number when betting Basketball. It is the equivalent to the "3" in football, though not as strong. I don't recommend buying points in any other situations except this one..
I hope these 10 "pearls" help make you better prepared when betting the NBA playoffs this season. If you have any questions regarding this article, feel free to contact me at aw222@aol.com
THE SHRINK
HOW TO BET THE NBA PLAYOFFS...
written 4/23/05 by THE SHRINK
Starting today, the NBA begins with four playoff games to see who will be crowned the champion. Although the lines for many of these match ups are razor sharp, I believe it is possible to beat the bookmaker. So, let me share with you a few tips on what I look for at this time of year.
1-LIVE UNDERDOGS- I have often wondered who coined this phrase because I really like it. However, how does one decide what constitutes a LIVE DOG from a DEAD one? Personally, I consider a LIVE DOG to be a team not only capable of covering the spread, but one that has a shot at winning the game outright.
2-MATCHUPS- Certain teams match up better against their opponents than others do even though they may not have as good a record. I can't stress to you the importance of recognizing teams who have a superior match up advantage against their opponent. One only needs to look at how certain teams have fared against one another to figure this out.
3-INJURIES- This usually separates the Professionals from the Amateurs. It's often a race between the lines maker and the Wise Guy to get the information first because quite often, the line will move depending on WHO is injured and the severity of the injury. DonBest.com is an excellent source for obtaining this information in a timely manner..
4-LINE MOVES- You don't have to be a Professional to follow line movement. Usually, the best information is the latest information, so I suggest betting as late as possible unless the number you are looking for is about to vanish. For example, Dallas is a 5 1/2 point favorite today against Houston but a couple of 5's remain at the time I am writing this. If you like the favorite, you may want to bet it now because the 5's are likely to disappear quicker than the 5 1/2's. Also, pay close attention when an UNDERDOG gets bet heavy and the line moves in favor of the Dog. Unless proven otherwise, this is a SYNDICATE/PROFESSIONAL bet because the Public tends to bet Favorites and Overs. If you are fortunate enough to catch a slow moving bookmaker or one that inflates point spreads, I'd advocate jumping on board with the Professionals and taking the Underdog. I would also predict that in this case, it would be classified as a LIVE DOG.
5-BE A CONTRARIAN- One overrated scenario is taking the team that loses game 1 and betting them in game 2. Don't be suckered into this blindly. Quite often, when a 5 point favorite wins game 1 by 15 points, the line on game 2 is only 4 because the team that has lost game 1 has their back against the wall. However, this has been factored into the point spread by the line going down! In fact, I prefer to look for situations to play the same team again when there is VALUE due to the line maker overcompensating on this trend. The same holds true whenever a DOG wins outright. The team that was favored to win by 5 points will undoubtedly be favored by 6. Again, I look for reasons to take the DOG again whenever possible, knowing the whole world will be betting the Favorite ...
6-BET FAVORITES EARLY & UNDERDOGS LATE- Since the Public often bets just before game time, you are much more likely to gain a much needed and appreciated half point edge when betting the Underdog close to game time. The opposite holds true if you like the Favorite. Bet them early before the Public inflates that number when they enter the market later on.
7-LOOK FOR STREAKS- Certain teams will rise to the occasion in the playoffs and play better than expected. If you spot a team you see is playing at a level and intensity they haven't show in the Regular Season, keep betting them because the chances are it will take the odds makers longer to adjust to this and figure out a fair line. In other words, be ahead of the bookmakers who make the spread. Quite often, you will see a team cover 5 out of 6 at this time of year. You will be amply rewarded if you figure out WHO before the bookie does.
8-BET ON TEAMS THAT HAVE GREAT DEFENSES- One needs to look no further than last years's NBA FINALS to realize that DEFENSES win basketball games. In fact, DEFENSES are much more consistent than Offenses, so you know that a good defensive team will have its A game, but the same cannot be guaranteed with Offenses. The Detroit Pistons shocked the World last year with their Defense by crushing the heavily favored Los Angeles Lakers, whose Offense never showed up.
9-BE WILLING TO PASS- As I mentioned at the onset, the lines on these NBA playoff games are often razor sharp. Don't be afraid to PASS and wait for a better opportunity to strike. Be careful not to bet a game because it's on TV and you are bored. Sometimes the best bet is truly the NO BET. especially when you would have had the Losing side. That, in itself is a WINNER...
10-ALWAYS BUY ONTO BUT NOT OFF OF 2. This may be a tad advanced for some, but many Professionals will BUY a 1 1/2 point DOG to PLUS 2 minus 20 or BUY a 2 1/2 point FAVORITE down to 2 minus 20. I strongly adhere to this but only onto the 2 and not off of the 2. The reason is quite simple. The 2 represents the single most important number when betting Basketball. It is the equivalent to the "3" in football, though not as strong. I don't recommend buying points in any other situations except this one..
I hope these 10 "pearls" help make you better prepared when betting the NBA playoffs this season. If you have any questions regarding this article, feel free to contact me at aw222@aol.com
THE SHRINK
